European football in 2008-09 has been as exciting and incident-packed as ever. The top-flight European leagues continue to thrive, despite the dominance of a small number of sides. In terms of popularity, the English Premiership is undoubtedly top of the rankings, followed by the Spanish La Liga, Germany’s Bundesliga and Italy’s Serie A. Coupled with the “glorious uncertainty” of the FA Cup and the international competition in the Champions League and UEFA Cup it is little wonder that football betting ranks below only horse racing in terms of turnover.
BETTING TIPS, TRICKS AND ADVICE
Predictions
Determining even the basic statistical chance of a home win, away win and draw in any football match is a difficult, complex process, before any other influencing factors are taken into consideration. Every punter has their own methods, but the following is a general guide.
In a Premiership match at the Emirates Stadium, Arsenal have seasonal form of 9-5-2 (Win-Draw-Loss), while visitors Middlesbrough have away form of 2-2-12. Cross-referencing the respective home and away form gives an approximate guide to the chance of each result.
Home win = 9 + 12 = 21 out of 32 games = 66%
Away win = 2 +2 = 4 out of 32 games = 13%
Draw = 5 + 2 = 7 out of 32 games = 21%
In this case, fair prices for each outcome would be, in decimal odds 1.52, 7.69 and 4.76 respectively. Obviously, this a very superficial approach as numerous other factors influence the result of a match.
Other Factors
Tactical Resting of Players
Clubs threatened by relegation, involved in European competition or with every chance of winning a divisional championship may rest key players for games considered less important. This will inevitably have a detrimental effect on the team`s performance and needs to be factored in to any analysis of the game.
Recent Form
Teams with recent winning form tend to be high in confidence, while those on a losing run can be demoralized. It is also worth bearing in mind that teams in the lower half of a division are, almost by definition, inconsistent and can often pull a good (or indeed dire) performance out of the bag.
Injuries and Recoveries
Injuries to key players can have an adverse effect on a team`s performance. In contrast, one or more players returning from injury can be as effective as new signings.
Odds and Value Betting
A “value” betting opportunity occurs when the odds on offer are such that the potential reward outweighs the risk involved. In order to determine in a particular price represents value:
1. Determine the statistical chance of a particular outcome.
2. Determine the best decimal price available for that outcome.
3. Multiply them together and a result of 1 or more represents a value bet.
In the Arsenal v Middlesbrough example above, the actual best prices offered were:
Home: 1.53 x 0.66 = 1 (a value bet, just!)
Away: 7.5 x 0.13 = 0.98 (no value)
Draw: 4.33 x 0.21 = 0.91 (no value)
These principles apply to betting on all European Football, whether it be the Premiership, Football League, European leagues, UEFA Cup or a bet on the Champions League.
